Catastrophe Readiness and Response: New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophe Workshop

(2008-03-31 10:13:00.0)

A report from Drew Bumbak, Director, Center for Emergency Education & Disaster Research, University of Maryland, Baltimore County The second Tennessee NMSZ Workshop (Official name - The New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Earthquake Planning Project, State of Tennessee Workshop II) was held in Memphis, TN from the 17th to the 19th of March. The workshop was designed to bring together emergency management and response personnel and planners from local, state, federal agencies, as well as the private sector to provide input for a major revision of the NMSZ Catastrophic Event Annex for Tennessee. The workshop was scenario driven, and all of the damage and loss estimates and planning assumptions and work are predicated on a magnitude 7.7 earthquake occurring on 13 December 2008 at 1400 CST. The epicenter of the quake is approximately 33 miles North North-West of Memphis TN. The quake complete devastation and large scale destruction, with approximately 10 million people affected on parts of Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, and Kentucky, and it is felt as far away as Pittsburgh, PA, Boston, MA, and Norfolk, VA. In the aftermath of the earthquake, the geography of the area changes remarkably, especially in and around the Mississippi and other rivers, numerous buildings sustain heavy damage or are completely destroyed, utilities are interrupted, critical infrastructure throughout the region is seriously compromised, and thousands of people in Tennessee alone are killed with tens of thousands suffering injuries of various degrees. Participants were divided into breakout groups on days two and three to develop response and recovery strategies, objectives, tasks, and identification of resource needs following a catastrophic NMSZ earthquake, and at the end of both days, everyone reconvened in a plenary session so that findings of each breakout session could be reported. The breakout sessions were: Day 1: Public Safety and Security Response (ESF 13) Evacuee Case Management (ESFs 6 & 8) Economic and Community Recovery (ESF 15) Fire Protection (ESF 4) Day 2: Critical Resource Logistics and Distribution (ESF 7) Restoration of Lifelines (ESFs 3 & 12) Hazardous Materials (ESF 10) Evacuee Case Mgmt (morning) / Family Reunification (afternoon) (ESF 6 & 8) Before the workshop, I knew that an NMSZ event would be catastrophic, but I now realize that my concept of how bad a NMSZ event might be did not even begin to approach the potential reality. A quake similar to the one on which the workshop was based would result in over 100,000 buildings destroyed and more than 150,000 damaged to some degree in Tennessee alone, as well as over 2000 dead and almost 35,000 injured just because of the initial quake. Furthermore, because so many interstate highways cross the area, and there is so much shipping traffic on the Mississippi, and because FedEx main operations center is in Memphis, the quake would cause major disruption to our just in time inventory system, while damage to or destruction to pipelines (both natural gas and liquid petroleum), and electric transmission systems that cross the NMSZ, would have a profound impact on at least the eastern half of the United States. Post event, supplies of natural gas, heating oil, and other petroleum product to the north central and north eastern part of the country would be seriously curtailed, causing major fuel and heating oil shortages. Damage to the power grid from the quake would result in (reportedly based on work done by Sandia Labs and the U.S. DOE) a cascading catastrophic failure of the eastern power grid, which would blackout much of the eastern half of the country. The estimation was that places that did not suffer damage from the quake would have power back in a matter of minutes to hours, however, as you get closer to the epicenter, the length of the power disruptions were projected to increase dramatically. As with the Florida catastrophe planning workshop in November, I initially saw a disconnect as many participants were not able to immediately grasp the fact that this event would be many orders of magnitude more severe that a run of the mill disaster. However, as at the Florida workshop, once the people were able to begin wrapping their minds around the situation, they began to identify response and recovery tasks, goals and objectives, as well as resource needs. All in all, the workshop was a success from the standpoint of the Catastrophe Readiness and Response course development project, as we gathered a lot of information that will be useful in developing the course and made a number of contacts who will also be very helpful with the project and who can provide further information. Additionally, the workshop seemed to be successful from the standpoint of helping to improve the state ability to respond to a catastrophic NMSZ event. Participants identified potential problems and vulnerabilities as well as numerous solutions for them, developed all sorts of novel approaches to the response and recovery needs, and, perhaps most importantly, they learned more about the potential threat, and developed numerous contacts at all levels of government and in the private sector, which will allow them to more efficiently work together.